Jimmy Butler got the Miami return he deserved

PLUS: news about the newsletter, the salary cap and Dame Lillard.

Cap Goin’ Up On a Tuesday

The NBA announced new salary cap growth projections on Tuesday; as expected, the cap is increasing 10%, the maximum possible under the current collective bargaining agreement. This is largely due to the NBA’s new media rights deal, which goes into effect for the 2025-26 season. I suspect we’re in line for 10% increases at least until expansion hits, and perhaps after.

Teams have built this inevitability into their roster-building plans, and only the Nets are in line to have massive cap space this summer. Where the intrigue will really happen is around the luxury tax for high payroll teams like the Celtics, Suns and even Cavaliers, Nuggets and Magic. Which teams will ride it out? Which teams will trade key players or even stars (like Kevin Durant, who is almost assuredly on the move)? What happens with a player like Jonathan Kuminga, whose salary could push Golden State back into the danger zone but for whom there isn’t otherwise a huge market due to the lack of cap space?

It’s going to be a really interesting summer.

An Announcement

Good Morning It’s Basketball is in the process of moving from Substack to Ghost. There’s nothing you need to do! All subscriptions, paid and otherwise, will be moved over. The next email you receive from me will likely look a bit different, and paid subscribers will likely need to log into the new GMIB website once. But no one should need to re-enter credit card information or anything.

You can always find the newsletter at teamziller.com.

If you are a paid subscriber, you’ll notice you now show up as a free subscriber of this newsletter on Substack. That’s expected and part of the transition. I’ve retroactively made this week’s newsletters available to all so that there’s minimal interruption.

There is one group of readers who should take heed: if you use the Substack app to access this newsletter, that access will go away as early as Thursday. You should start getting emails again once the transition is complete, but let me know otherwise.

For those curious about why we’re moving off of Substack, here’s a brief bit of shop talk. Please skip to the next section if that sentence bored you or you want to avoid any whiff whatsoever of politics!

• At GMIB’s current size, Substack is by far the most expensive common option in terms of the fees they collect from publishers.
• Ghost is pretty great, and the folks at Outpost built some nice tools that will make my life as a publisher easier.
• Meanwhile, Substack has turned off many potential subscribers due to highly controversial moderation decisions on the platform. I strongly disagree with most of those moderation decisions.
• My faith in Substack leadership’s ability to improve the platform and navigate the unbelievably tricky waters online platforms have entered has eroded to basically nothing. No offense to them individually; Hamish McKenzie in particular has always been willing to lend an ear, and I truly appreciate what a lifeline Substack was when my time at SB Nation abruptly ended around Christmas 2019.
• The purest distillation of my lack of faith in Substack leadership can be found in this recent post by co-founder Chris Best, in which he hands it to Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg on free speech grounds. No, you do not under any circumstances gotta hand it to Musk and Zuck. That Substack’s CEO would hand it to Musk in particular after Musk went to war with Substack after buying Twitter to the point where Substack publishers still cannot embed tweets in the Substack editor and given that links to Substack posts still get throttled down on Twitter — this doesn’t prove free speech bonafides on the part of Substack’s leadership. It shows fear of continuing the fight given Musk’s new power. And hey, do what you have to do to survive, I suppose. Just don’t kneel to an opponent and call it bravery.

Wow, like the end of an NBA game, that went on a lot longer than I thought it would.

Ban Blood Clots

Damian Lillard is out indefinitely due to a blood clot in his calf. It appears he’s been dealing with this issue for a while: he missed 10 games earlier this season with soreness in the same calf where the deep vein thrombosis was discovered, and he’s been on blood-thinning medicine. Obviously, as with Victor Wembanyama, you just want Dame to be well. Unlike a ligament or tendon injury, which can be devastating but will heal and don’t necessary threaten the overall health of a player, cardiovascular and circulatory ailments are potentially life and death. Empathy is due.

It’s also a crushing blow for the Bucks’ hopes of making a run behind the constantly miraculous Giannis Antetokounmpo given how good Dame has been this season and how limited the guard options are for Milwaukee. If Lillard can’t return in time for the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine the Bucks surviving a first round series against either the Pacers or Knicks, let alone a second round series against the Cavaliers.

Scores

Spurs 96, Pistons 122 — Is Chris Paul coming back next year? He’s averaging about 9 points and 8 assists on 28 minutes per game, he turns 40 in May, he’ll be a free agent again this summer. He didn’t really get to spend the season with Gregg Popovich given Pop’s absence, and he got a little more than half a season with Wembanyama. De’Aaron Fox is there now, and the long-term starting five likely includes Fox, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, a second big (like Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Sochan) and Wembanyama.

My guess is that CP3 has one more season left, and might finally spend it with his pal LeBron.

Magic 111, Hornets 104 — Orlando is creeping back to .500. Putting 111 on the Hornets isn’t terribly inspired, but the dynamic duo is putting it back together one game at a time. 6-3 in their last nine with seven of those on the road.

Mavericks 113, Knicks 128 — Anthony Davis sat the second night of a back-to-back. So Naji Marshall and O.G. Anunoby had themselves a shoot-out.

Warriors 86, Heat 112 — Jimmy Butler’s return to Miami was decidedly non-triumphant. He did get a tribute video, though.

Golden State without Butler: not terribly good. Golden State without Steph Curry: dreadful.

Hawks 114, Rockets 121 — Here’s something real pretty: Jalen Green using a stiff Steven Adams screen to lose Dyson Daniels, freezing Onyeka Okongwu with a behind-the-back dribble and gliding to the rim before help can come.

The Hawks miss a chance to hit .500.

Grizzlies 140, Jazz 103 — Desmond Bane has been getting spicy a lot this season. It has now spread to Grizzlies huddles.

Meanwhile, Will Hardy might finally be losing his patience with the glorified open gym drop-in situation that the Jazz have become this season. In fairness to the players, this is on the front office and coaching staff creating the situation in which it seems like possessions and games don’t matter.

Thunder 121, Kings 105 — These teams are in different leagues.

Cavaliers 122, Blazers 111 — Is Shaedon Sharpe the most aesthetic dunker in the NBA?

Strong Darius Garland effort against good defenders. The Cavaliers are stabilizing.

Schedule

All times Eastern. Important games get asterisks.

Wizards at Sixers, 7
Raptors at Nets, 7:30
Lakers at Pacers, 7:30, ESPN**
Clippers at Knicks, 7:30**
Bucks at Nuggets, 9**
Celtics at Suns, 10, ESPN*

Be excellent to each other.