Let's look back at our preseason predictions
No. Oh no. The humanity!
It’s prediction review time! Back in October I made 13 bold predictions about this season. They proved too bold. Let’s jump in.
There will be a three-way race for the No. 1 seed in the West this season: the Phoenix Suns, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Kings will be in pursuit; I think (tragically) the Kings end up No. 7 in the play-in, joined by the Lakers, Pelicans and Rockets. The Warriors, Clippers and Spurs end up outside with the Jazz and Blazers.
This was a brutal start. OKC is No. 1 with a bullet, with the Nuggets, Grizzlies, Lakers and Rockets in pursuit. One of the Warriors and Timberwolves will likely join those teams in the top six. The other will be in the play-in with the Clippers, Kings and Suns, in all likelihood. So I got OKC, Memphis and Denver good, Wolves pretty good, undersold the Rockets and Lakers, really undersold the Warriors and Clippers, way oversold the Suns, oversold the Mavericks, Kings and Pelicans. To correct this matter, I will never believe in the Kings again.
I’m going to take the Suns coming out of the conference. Kevin Durant is still just unbelievably good. Devin Booker has been here before. There is a mini-rivalry with the Nuggets going. I’d love to pick the Grizzlies but they have historically underperformed in the postseason with this core. The Mavericks are probably my second pick for West champs — I still struggle to imagine these Thunder beating them in a series.
Oh dear. I had forgotten how deeply into the tank I went for the Suns in preseason. I really, really believed in the addition of Mike Budenholzer and Tyus Jones.
I maintain my belief in the fact that the Celtics remain the class of the East and the next seven teams are some level of interchangeable depending on injuries and fit. (Those next seven: Sixers, Knicks, Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, Heat, in basically that order.) I think the Celtics make it back to the Finals … unless Giannis Antetokounmpo carries the Bucks over them, which I think is totally plausible. I just wish I had more trust in the rest of the Bucks to help Giannis and Damian Lillard get there.
Obviously, Cleveland isn’t interchangeable with anyone in the East, and none of those seven teams except Indiana and Milwaukee ended up being particularly close to each other. Miami and Orlando ended up much worse than the others, and the Knicks are quite good (but not nearly as good as the top two). Boston is still a favorite to make the Finals, though. So my least bold prediction — Celtics real good — is my only correct one. So far.
Suns over Celtics in six. A first championship ever for Phoenix. (I already regret this pick!)
Damn. I knew it when it left my fingertips.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and Jayson Tatum round out the top five. The SGA backlash picks up steam, with Bucks fans and Celtics fans joining the bandwagon.
Hey! We got another one! No, I still don’t know how I left Nikola Jokic off this list. Pure rushing and not editing my work. Obviously, Jokic is an MVP contender until he stops playing 30 minutes a game and 70 games a year. Giannis and Tatum will be in the top five with Shai and Jokic, plus likely Donovan Mitchell.
Donovan Clingan, Rookie of the Year. The Blazers will be weird and mostly bad but take down some giants randomly throughout the season. Deandre Ayton ends up in New Orleans with Brandon Ingram getting shipped to Miami. Jerami Grant ends up in Los Angeles. (Which team? I don’t know!) Clarity of the future of a Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons pecking order remains cloudy.
Nope, though I did peg the Blazers as giant-killers, so that’s cool!
The Brooklyn Nets end up with the worst record in the league, but the Utah Jazz get the No. 1 pick in the draft, because of course. Cooper Flagg to SLC. The Wizards and Blazers finish second and third worst, followed by the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs and Clippers.
Brooklyn isn’t close to the worst team, and the Blazers are closer to the play-in than the bottom of the West. I pegged the Wizards and Hornets pretty well, but oversold the Jazz (who went full tank early in the season) and obviously whiffed on the Sixers and Pelicans.
James Harden averages 28-12 and doesn’t make All-NBA because the Clippers won 34 games. I spend a whole column comparing Harden’s arc to that of Trae Young with a more dedicated GM.
Harden’s actually at 22 and 9, and the Clippers will win 44 or 45 games instead of 34, and I’m probably going to put Harden on third team All-NBA on my unofficial ballot. But that column idea rocks, and I’m running with it. Thanks, Past Wrong Self.
The Pistons and Raptors make a play for the play-in in the East but fall short. The Bulls and Hawks play the 9-10 game, as is their birthright. We all lose. Trae Young trade chatter reaches peak volume. He ends up in Orlando next summer.
So I was early on the Pistons train, I just undersold them! The Raptors could absolutely have gone for the play-in if they wanted it, so I’m vindicating myself there as well. The Heat are ruining the Hawks-Bulls prediction — Atlanta should be No. 9 at best with their below-.500 record — though Chicago has indeed been in the 9-10 bracket nearly the entire season. Giving myself partial credit here.
TIME TO TALK ABOUT THE KINGS. Malik Monk wins Sixth Man of the Year over Naz Reid and Grayson Allen. DeMar DeRozan fits in beautifully, but the team is in a dogfight every night in the West. They end up as one of the best seven seeds ever. I reluctantly turn against the play-in tournament and refer to it as “a scourge designed to create manufactured profit-seeking at the expense of meritocracy” and “an abomination.”
Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope nope nope nope nope.
The Knicks are really, really good but can’t get past the Celtics. The Wolves are really, really good but can’t get past the Mavericks. I and others convince ourselves that the Cavaliers can make a deep run, and much to our chagrin, they do not because the best teams are just a little better.
Note to future self: stop packing multiple predictions into one. The Knicks point looks valid right now! The Wolves point is wrong from a different angle (that angle being Nico Harrison’s downward cast eyes). And my opinion on the Cavaliers has dramatically changed (though we will see when they inevitably meet Boston in the playoffs).
ESPN does not lose any additional game analysts to NBA head coaching jobs.
Eyes on you, Richard Jefferson.
The NBA on TNT farewell tour goes entirely off the rails … by February. Charles Barkley starts attacking Adam Silver for carrying more about money than tradition. Rumors immediately tie Barkley and Kenny Smith to Amazon.
So this has definitely happened even though the show will continue in a certain form on ESPN. Shaq is regularly cursing and Chuck has had multiple beefs with ESPN personalities already.
***
There we have it. I'm terrible at predictions. Don’t listen to me!
Scores
Hawks 134, Hornets 102 — Over the past 20 years, only one franchise has more than 47 losses of at least 30 points. Surprise, it’s Charlotte. And Charlotte has 65 of them.
Nets 96, Celtics 104 — The margin was double-digits for exactly one possession. Boston rested Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford, so the task was left to Kristaps Porzingis (25-13 in 29 minutes, he looks great) and Your Friendly Neighborhood Baylor Scheierman.
Don’t tell me the Celtics found another rotation player late in the first round!
Boston has won 18 of 22 games. Going back to last season and including the playoffs, the Celtics are 130-40 (.764).
(Oh, and remember how I said the Hornets have 65 losses of at least 30 points over the past two decades? The Celtics have 10.)
Bucks 93, Warriors 104 — Steph Curry got a much-needed rest night, but the Bucks were totally unable to solve the Warriors’ defense, anchored by Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler on no rest. Highly impressive effort from the Dubs.
It’s a true absurdity that Milwaukee’s defense has been much more reliable than its offense. Statistically, Damian Lillard is playing very similarly to how he did in his most recent healthy Portland seasons, just at a somewhat lower usage rate. And the Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the league: No. 2 in three-point percentage and No. 5 in effective field goal percentage. They abandoned the offensive glass completely in favor of transition defense (probably a wise choice given how bad the transition defense was in the recent past). Maybe this just doesn’t work? You’ll never be good enough with this personnel at this age to be an elite defense; the offense is something short. And that something was not, unfortunately, Kyle Kuzma.
Cavaliers 119, Clippers 132 — The Clippers remain perhaps the most enigmatic team in the NBA. Capable of losing to anyone. Capable of getting swept. Capable of beating anyone, maybe four times in a series. How could Paul George’s year get any worse than it has been? The Clippers could go on a tear through the Western Conference playoffs. That’s how.
James Harden and Ivica Zubac form a really solid foundation for this team. Norman Powell gives them some real offensive punch. The defensive depth with Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum and now Ben Simmons give the offense breathing room. And Kawhi Leonard just amps it all up to 11.
I’d be afraid of them if Kawhi stays healthy.
Schedule
ESPN Night in the NBA with 11 games. All times Eastern. Important games get asterisks.
Mavericks at Pacers, 7
Rockets at Magic, 7*
Pistons at Heat, 7:30, ESPN
Pelicans at Timberwolves, 8
Sixers at Thunder, 8
Knicks at Spurs, 8
Wizards at Jazz, 9 — can’t wait to see what Utah comes up with
Nuggets at Lakers, 10, ESPN***
Bulls at Suns, 10*
Grizzlies at Blazers, 10
Cavaliers at Kings, 10*
Be excellent to each other.
